Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
